ࡱ>  $gbjbj h^+$???P3? d$CYYY444$n#44##YY.'.'.'#YY.'#.'.'zY?$|ju0 ^%4<*.'f"!444F&444 ####444444444 : Draft Status Report for presentation to the TOWS WG III Meeting May 05 06, 2010 Inter-ICG Task Team on Tsunami Watch Operations Section 1: Terms of Reference The Inter-ICG Task Team on Tsunami Watch Operations shall Provide a mechanism to the ICGs for coordination of tsunami watch operations among the Tsunami Warning Systems; Document current and proposed products and their dissemination methods, working through existing ICG working groups or their equivalents; Review terminology and recommend harmonized terminology; Document areas of responsibilities, geographical coverage, system architectures, and other relevant characteristics; Develop consensus on uniform standards, procedures and guidelines for tsunami watch operations, including a process for verifying the operational status of Regional Tsunami Watch Providers; Develop guidelines for the review of tsunami watch operations; Provide a report to TOWS-WG in advance of its 3rd Meeting, in 2010. The representatives to the Inter-ICG Task Team on Tsunami Watch Operations shall be nominated by their respective ICG Chairpersons and appointed by the IOC Chair, who will also appoint the chair of the task team. Section 2: Members of the Task Team Sl. NoRegionNamee-mail1PTWSChip McCreery (PTWC, USA) HYPERLINK "mailto:Charles.mccreery@noaa.gov" Charles.mccreery@noaa.gov2PTWSYohei Hasegawa (JMA, Japan) Dr. Takeshi Koizumi HYPERLINK "mailto:yhasegawa@met.kishou.go.jp" yhasegawa@met.kishou.go.jp  HYPERLINK "mailto:yhasegaw_mri@yahoo.co.jp" yhasegaw_mri@yahoo.co.jp  HYPERLINK "mailto:t-koizumi@met.kishou.go.jp" t-koizumi@met.kishou.go.jp 3CARIBE-EWSChrista von Hillebrandt (USA) HYPERLINK "mailto:Christa.vonH@noaa.gov" Christa.vonH@noaa.gov  HYPERLINK "mailto:christa@prsn.uprm.edu" christa@prsn.uprm.edu4CARIBE-EWSEmilio Talavera (Nicaragua) HYPERLINK "mailto:Emilio.talavera@gf.ineter.gob.ni" Emilio.talavera@gf.ineter.gob.ni5NEAMTWSLuis Matias (Portugal) HYPERLINK "mailto:Ilmatias@fc.ul.pt" Ilmatias@fc.ul.pt6NEAMTWSGerassimos Papadopoulos (Greece) HYPERLINK "mailto:papadop@gein.noa.gr" papadop@gein.noa.gr  HYPERLINK "mailto:g.papad@gein.noa.gr" g.papad@gein.noa.gr7IOTWSSrinivasa Kumar (INCOIS, India) HYPERLINK "mailto:srinivas@incois.gov.in" srinivas@incois.gov.in8IOTWSCharles Ngunjiri (Kenya) HYPERLINK "mailto:ngunjiri@meteo.go.ke" ngunjiri@meteo.go.ke  HYPERLINK "mailto:mainangunjiri@yahoo.com" mainangunjiri@yahoo.com 9Secretarial SupportTony Elliott HYPERLINK "mailto:t.elliott@unesco.org" t.elliott@unesco.org 10IOC Tsunami UnitPeter Koltermann HYPERLINK "mailto:p.koltermann@unesco.org" p.koltermann@unesco.org  Section 3: Work Done So Far The work of this task team is too elaborate to be accomplished within a short time frame of three months before the TOWS WG III meeting. Though a meeting of the task team members was felt desirable to progress the work, this was not possible due to lack of time. So far, the work of this task team is being progressed through emails. A background document has been prepared with inputs from the task team members identifying the items to be addressed as part of each ToR and to draw up a work plan for accomplishment of the tasks. The first and most important task is to document the current operations in each of the ICGs (AoR, system architecture, terminologies used, products, dissemination mechanisms, etc). The task team, so far, was engaged in collating this information for each of the ICGs. An opportune, informal meeting of a few members of the task team was held on April 15, 2010 in the sidelines of the ICG/IOTWS meeting at Banda Aceh. A draft status report has been prepared for presentation to the TOWS WG III meeting along with an action plan to complete the work of the task team in the coming one year (by April 2011). Section 4: Framework for collation of information from the TT Members on the ToRs: TT shall provide a mechanism to the ICGs for coordination of tsunami watch operations among the Tsunami Warning Systems There currently is no mechanism, other than TOWS and this Task Team, for addressing the issue of coordination of tsunami watch operations among the four Tsunami Warning Systems (TWSs), yet the operational centers of the PTWS, IOTWS, CARIBE-EWS and NEAMTWS, face many common challenges. These include the rapid detection, monitoring and forecasting of tsunamis, the reliable and effective communication of operational tsunami products, and the management of information during crisis operations. While there are certain differences between the tsunami hazard, tsunami vulnerability, size and shape of the potentially affected bodies of water, number of countries, local culture and language, and available resources for each center and its area of responsibility, there are also many commonalities that can best be addressed through a coordinated approach among all the systems and centers. Further, a system of systems that is globally coordinated is more likely to be effective. Recommendation: A perpetual body, composed of representatives from the international tsunami centers of all TWSs should be formed. Its terms of reference should include the development and maintenance of standards and guidelines for: 1) operational procedures and methodologies, 2) operational products, 3) coordination of product content during crisis operations, 4) product dissemination, 5) product terminology, and 6) documentation. The TOR should also include the development of center performance standards, and procedures for monitoring and reporting on center performance. The body should specifically work towards globally harmonizing the above to the extent possible. Within the four systems and their ICGs there are mechanisms for addressing some of these issues, but these are often overlapping and redundant efforts with inconsistent results. None address global harmonization. Document current and proposed products and their dissemination methods, working through existing ICG working groups or their equivalents Current Products IOTWS Interim Advisory Service: PTWC Tsunami Information Bulletins Local, Regional or Indian Ocean-Wide Tsunami Watch Bulletins Interim Advisory Service: JMA Tsunami Information Bulletins Local, Regional or Indian Ocean-Wide Tsunami Watch Bulletins PTWS PTWC Tsunami Information Bulletin Fixed Regional, Expanding Regional or Pacific-Wide Tsunami Warning JMA (Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory Center - NWPTAC) Tsunami Information Bulletin Local, Regional, northwest and portion of southwest Pacific Tsunami Watch Bulletins West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WC/ATWC) Tsunami Information Bulletin Local, Regional, west coast and Alaska of Pacific Tsunami Watch Bulletins NEAMTWS CARIBE-EWS Interim Advisory Service: PTWC Tsunami Information Statement Local, Regional and Caribbean-Wide Tsunami Warning What are the Proposed Products? IOTWS Regional Tsunami Watch Providers TWP bulletins for NTWCs TWP bulletins for the Public TWP bulletins for exchange with other RTWPs PTWS NEAMTWS CARIBE-EWS Products issued by the proposed Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center Tsunami Warning Tsunami Advisory Tsunami Watch Tsunami Information Statement What are the Current Methods of Dissemination? For the four TWS with international operations (PTWS, IOTWS, NEAMTWS and CARIBE-EWS) the current methods of dissemination are: IOTWS GTS FAX SMS Email Web FTP WebGIS PTWS GTS AFTN EMWIN Fax Email Web AWIPS NWW NAWAS HAWAS IDN NEAMTWS GTS Fax Email Web CARIBETWS Fax NWW Email SMS AWIPS Web RSS feed EMWIN The description of the communications mediums: Global Telecommunications System (GTS) - The GTS is operated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This is a dedicated circuit connected to the National Meteorological and Hydrological Centers (NMHCs) of most countries around the globe. Since the national tsunami warning responsibility of many countries resides with their national meteorological agency and since their NMHCs typically have 24x7 operations, this is an effective means for alerting for a tsunami threat with a text message. Shortcomings of the GTS are that it doesnt reach some of the more remote countries like certain Pacific island states or countries where the tsunami warning responsibility resides with another agency such as the Navy. Also, the GTS doesnt widely support the higher bandwidth required for disseminating graphical products such as tsunami travel time maps or tsunami forecast energy distribution plots. Aeronautical Fixed Telecommunications Network (AFTN) AFTN is a dedicated circuit that goes to airfield facilities around the world. Its primary use is for communication of information related to airfield operations. However, this circuit is often also connected to NMHCs because they provide airfields with weather information. Through the AFTN, tsunami products are received by either a 24x7 airfield facility or the NMHC to trigger tsunami protection actions when necessary. AFTN is currently used only in the PTWS and CARIBE-EWS. Fax Most of the NTFPs have designated one or more fax numbers for receiving products from the operational centers. Limitations are that fax machines may be busy or turned off or out of order when faxes are disseminated. Faxes also need a way to be quickly recognized when they come in. Also, faxes are best for text messages or simple black and white graphics. Email Most of the NTFPs have designated one or more email addresses for receiving products from the operational centers. Limitations are that email servers are sometimes down and that email needs a way to be quickly recognized when it comes in. However, email can support both text and graphical products. Web All of the current operational centers have websites that are used for displaying their current products and for displaying additional graphical products. Websites are not practical for alerting NTFPs to an event, but are an excellent way to provide key information about an event once the event is known. To access the website effectively, a TWFP needs internet access with a reasonable speed. In addition, the website must be capable of handling the millions of hits that can occur during a major tsunami event. AWIPS- The advanced Weather Information Processing System (AWIPS) is operated by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) to exchange weather information and products between its offices throughout the country. PTWCs products are entered into AWIPS though U.S. National Weather Service Telecommunications Gateway (NWSTG) in Silver Spring Maryland. NWS Weather Forecast Offices that play an important role in the timely dissemination of tsunami products to the local communities receive U.S TWC products via AWIPS. NWW The NOAA Weather Wire is a satellite broadcast service maintained by the NWS to disseminate weather products domestically in the U.S. PTWC has both uplink and downlink capabilities on the NWW system. NAWAS The National Warning System is a nationwide dedicated vice telephone system connecting selected national defense, emergency management and coast guard agencies. PTWC uses NAWAS only when it is action as a backup for WC/ATWC. HAWAS The Hawaii Warning system is a statewide dedicated voice telephone system connecting selected State Civil Defense, National Guard, Law Enforcement and NWS offices. IDN Hawaii State Civil Defense maintains the Interisland Data Network, an email service utilizing a private TCP/IP circuit, that connects PTWC with all Hawaii State and County Civil Defense offices. Review terminology and recommend harmonized terminology What are the current terminologies for the different levels of alert? IOTWS Information Potential destructive tsunami threat very small or none Local Tsunami Watch Potential or confirmed destructive tsunami threat to coasts within about 200 km of the earthquake epicenter Regional Tsunami Watch Potential or confirmed destructive tsunami threat to coasts within about 1000 km of the earthquake epicenter Indian Ocean-Wide Tsunami Watch Potential or confirmed destructive tsunami threat to all coasts bordering the Indian Ocean PTWS Information Earthquake Information with potential destructive tsunami threat very small or none Regional Fixed Tsunami Warning Potential or confirmed destructive tsunami threat to coasts within about 1000 km of the earthquake epicenter Regional Expanding Warning & Watch Potential or confirmed widely destructive tsunami threat. Warning status encompass regions having less than 3 hours until the estimated time of tsunami arrival, Watch areas will have 3 to 6 hours for estimated time of tsunami wave arrival. Pacific-Wide Tsunami Warning Confirmed destructive tsunami threat to all coasts bordering the Pacific Basin. (PTWS User Guide, page No. 51) NEAMTWS CARIBE-EWS Information - Earthquake information with potential destructive tsunami threat very small or none Tsunami Advisory - Potential or confirmed destructive tsunami threat that may produce strong currents or waves dangerous to those in or near the water. Tsunami Watch Alert of potential or confirmed destructive tsunami threat that may impact the Watch area within the next hours. Tsunami Warning - Confirmed destructive tsunami threat to coasts. (Requirements_CTWC Page 6) What are the other key current technical terminologies used for tsunami operations? IOTWS Tsunamigenic Potential, Coastal Warning Segments, max_beach, max_deep, depth, Threat Threshold, Arrival Times, T1, T2, T3, T4 PTWS Tsunami Potential, Tsunami watch, Tsunami advisory, Tsunami Information, Tsunami warning, Initial Estimated Arrival times, Tsunami Wave Measurements, Period, Amplitude Tsunami forecast points, Double amplitude, Member States NEAMTWS Tsunami Warning Focal Points, Member States CARIBE-EWS Warning area, Earthquake magnitude, Earthquake depth, Arrival times, Amplitude, Period, Forecast Model What are the recommended harmonized terminologies across all TWSs for tsunami operations terminology? Document areas of responsibilities, geographical coverage, system architectures, and other relevant characteristics What are the current areas of responsibility? IOTWS PTWC and JMA as Interim Advisory Services Information and tsunami watch products for all coasts bordering the Indian Ocean including the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. RTWPs (by mid-2011) Information and tsunami watch products will be disseminated from multiple RTWPs to their respective areas of responsibility (as yet to be determined) that will in total cover all coastal areas of the Indian Ocean. PTWS PTWC Information and warning products are issued for all coasts in the Pacific Ocean Basin except the west coast of the continental United States, the west coast of Canada, and Alaska (covered by WCATWC). PTWC also provides this coverage to the coasts within the Philippine Sea, Bismarck Sea, Solomon Sea, Coral Sea, and Tasman Sea. Similar full coverage is provided for the South China Sea, the Sulu Sea, and the Celebes Sea, but on an interim basis. Information Bulletins only are provided for the Sea of Okhotsk, the Sea of Japan/East Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the East China Sea. JMA Information and warning products for all coasts of the Sea of Japan/East Sea and for the South China Sea NWPTAC (JMA) Information and warning products for coasts in the northwestern Pacific Ocean stretching from the Solomon Islands in the south to the east coast of Russia in the north. WCATWC Information and warning products for the Pacific and Bering Sea coasts of Alaska, the west coast of the continental United States, and the west coast of Canada NEAMTWS North-Eastern Atlantic, The Mediterranean and connected seas CARIBE-EWS PTWC - Caribbean and Adjacent Regions What is the geographical coverage? IOTWS 20E-140E, 60S-30N PTWS 100 E- 60 W, 60S-50 N NEAMTWS 10W-35E, 30N-45N CARIBE-EWS 0N-35N, 45W-100W, Does not include the Pacific Coasts or Continental US within these coordinates. What is the system architecture? IOTWS Currently, tsunami information and watch products are disseminated to the TWFPs of all Indian Ocean countries from PTWC and JMA as the Interim Advisory Service (IAS). Earthquake parameters for each event are coordinated between the two centers by pre-determined protocols. By the target date of mid-2011, tsunami information and watch products will be disseminated from each IOTWS RTWP to the TWFPs & the other RTWPs as an interoperable system of systems, with the IAS centers acting as a backup. PTWS Tsunami information and warning products disseminated from PTWC, WCATWC, and JMA to TWFPs of their respective areas of responsibility within the Pacific region. Earthquake parameters for each event are coordinated between centers by pre-determined protocols. NEAMTWS CARIBE-EWS Currently, tsunami information and watch products are disseminated from PTWC to the TWFPs of all countries of the Caribbean and adjacent regions. Future plans are for these tsunami products to be disseminated from a Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center. This system will be interoperable within the Caribbean basin and as well as with other regional and global TWCs and RTWP. Develop consensus on uniform standards, procedures, and guidelines for tsunami watch operations, including a process for verifying the operational status of Regional Tsunami Watch Providers What are the current procedures for tsunami watch operations? IOTWS Interim Service Level I provided by JMA and PTWC PTWS Interim Service Level I NEAMTWS - CARIBE-EWS Interim service provided by PTWC and WCATWC What are the capability requirements? IOTWS Access to real time data sources and production of standardized seismic and sea level parameters, Maintain or have access to benchmark numerical model scenarios Revise watch and threat information in light of additional seismic and sea level data. Provide products in globally standard formats. Issue products in a timely manner. Exchange warnings freely and timely on the GTS and Internet Adequate trained and experienced staff, utilities, and resources to operate functionally 24 hours per day, seven days per week (24/7). Adequate infrastructure and back-up facilities to continue operating during power cuts and national emergencies PTWS Access to real time data sources and production of standardized seismic and sea level parameters Provide timely and effective Tsunami Information and warnings to affected populations Revise watch and threat information in light of additional seismic and sea level data Provide products in global formats Exchange warnings in timely and freely Operating 24 hours per day, seven days per week (24/7) NEAMTWS CARIBE-EWS Access to real time data sources and production of standardized seismic and sea level parameters Appropriate historical database Forecast system Revise watch and threat information in light of additional seismic and sea level data. Provide products in formats approved by the ICG CARIBE EWS Issue products in a timely manner. Exchange warnings freely and timely on the GTS, EMWIN, Internet and other mechanisms Adequate trained and experienced staff, utilities, and resources to operate functionally 24 hours per day, seven days per week (24/7). Adequate infrastructure and back-up facilities to continue operating during power cuts and national emergencies No political restrictions should limit the access of the scientific and hazard management community of the region Staff should be able to communicate in English and at least one more of the Caribbean languages (Spanish, French, Dutch) What are the documentation requirements? IOTWS Tsunami Waning System Users Guide with general information on tsunamis, tsunami threat, TWC procedures and criteria for action, and sample bulletins Standard Operating Procedure Dissemination Procedures Contact details of TWFPs PTWS PTWS Medium-Term Strategy PTWS Users Guide TNC and TWFP contact information NEAMTWS CARIBE-EWS CTWC Concept of Operations, high level document maintained by IOC CTWC Operations Manual defining its roles and responsibilities Standard Operations Procedures which includes data processing, analysis and tsunami product dissemination procedures Tsunami Waning System Users Guide with general information for customers on tsunamis, tsunami threat, TWC procedures and criteria for action, as well as sample products TWFP and TNC Stakeholder contacts Tsunami Emergency Response Plan for the conduction of routine drills Develop guidelines for the review of tsunami watch operations. What is the existing mechanism for review of tsunami watch operations? IOTWS PTWS NEAMTWS CARIBE-EWS Elapsed Time from EQ or other trigger to issuance of tsunami product. Earthquake detection time < 1 minute for EQ > M 4.5 What are the performance indicators? IOTWS Elapsed time from EQ to initial EQ info issuance (local/distant): 10/15 Min Elapsed time from product issuance to TWFP receipt: 5 Min Probability of detection of IO EQ with Mw >= 6.5: 100 % Percent of IO countries issued a timely product: 100% Accuracy of hypocenter location: within 30 km * Accuracy of hypocenter depth: within 25 km * Accuracy of earthquake Mw magnitude: 0.2 ** Accuracy of tsunami forecast amplitude / height: factor of 2 Reliability of RTWP operations (power, computer, communications): 99.5% Contact information updated & quarterly communication tests PTWS Elapsed time from EQ to initial EQ product issuance (local/distant) Elapsed time from product issuance to TWFP receipt Elapsed time to warning cancellation Reduction of unnecessarily warned coasts Probability of detection of Pacific EQ with Mw >= 6.5: 100 % Percent of Pacific countries issued a timely product: 100% Accuracy of hypocenter location: within 30 km Accuracy of hypocenter depth: within 25 km Accuracy of earthquake Mw magnitude: 0.2 Accuracy of tsunami forecast amplitude / height: factor of 2 Reliability of RTWP operations (power, computer, communications): 100% NEAMTWS CARIBE-EWS Accuracy of earthquake parameters or other trigger parameters. Within 30 km (coordinates and depth) Elapsed time to tsunami evaluation. Reliability of CTWC Operations (Power, Computer, Communications, 24/7 operations) Regular exercising of system (monthly) Section 5: Way Forward Each of the ICGs is going through different development phases and follows different service levels and has varied architectures. More work is required to be done to come with specific recommendations with respect to the global coordination of international warning operations between the ICGs and the TWCs. It is expected that more time, probably a year, is required to come up with specific recommendations. A brief work plan is given below: Status report at the TOWS WG III: May 2010 Finalise the inputs w.r.t. current operations: July 2010 Meeting of the TT Members (preferably with other TTs): September 2010 Preparation of draft report with specific recommendations on the ToRs: December 2010 Final report for submission to TOWS WG IV: April 2011 Section 6: Reference Documents Report of the Second Meeting of the TOWS WG IOTWS Implementation Plan PTWS Implementation Plan PTWS mid-term strategy PTWS Reference Guide CARIBE EWS Implementation Plan CARIBE EWS Communication Plan for the Interim Tsunami Advisory Information Service CARIBE EWS Requirements of the CARIBE EWS Regional Tsunami Warning Centre NEAMTWS Implementation Plan Communication Plan for the Interim Tsunami Advisory Information Service to the Caribbean Sea and Adjacent Regions (July 23, 2006 version), approved by ICG CARIBE EWS II, 2007) The above documents are available for download at the INCOIS FTP Server that can be accessed as follows: Open any windows browser Copy and paste the following link in the Address Bar:  HYPERLINK "ftp://ftpser.incois.gov.in/Tsunami%20Task%20Team3%20Documents/" ftp://ftpser.incois.gov.in/Tsunami%20Task%20Team3%20Documents/ A logon screen will appear requesting for User Name and Password. 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