ࡱ> XZUVW` 0[bjbjss R D d $ LVVV" ceee3| ` $hk    VV4 X V Vcc V 0Y;(ndeL 0 {," Tt  X  dn fRse n Rs   WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION ________________________  INTERGOVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION (OF UNESCO) ________________________ JOINT WMO-IOC TECHNICAL COMMISSION FOR OCEANOGRAPHY AND MARINE METEOROLOGY (JCOMM) SERVICES COORDINATION GROUP FOURTH SESSION GENEVA, SWITZERLAND, 11 TO 13 MARCH 2009SCG-IV/Doc. 5.5 (02.III.2009) __________ ITEM 5.5 Original: ENGLISH ET-OFS Progress/Activity Report and proposed future work plan (Submitted by Gary Brassington, chair of ET-OFS) Summary and Purpose of Document This document provides information on the activities and priorities of the Expert Team on Ocean Forecasting Systems (ET-OFS), including suggestions for the future work programme and priorities for the ET-OFS. ACTION PROPOSED The Services Coordination Group is invited to: Note and comment on the information contained in this document; Review and comment on the ET-OFS 2010-2013 work plan as appropriate. ______________________ Appendices: A. Deliverables and/or Achievements planned for presentation to JCOMM-III B. Programme Area work plan for the remaining intersessional period Programme Area work plan for the next intersessional period DISCUSSION Issues and Opportunities that need action or discussion by the Service Coordination Group Specific attention is drawn to the fact that the ET-OFS membership has been drawn largely from outside JCOMM processes. Establishing the full contribution to IOC/WMO results and links to programme areas outlined below is incomplete and requires further clarification. The project plans outlined below are based on incomplete information and limited discussion among the ET-OFS members and must be considered a first draft. The maximum time affordable is requested to put these plans into final form to improve their accuracy and completeness. The relationship between JCOMM ET-OFS and GODAE OceanView remains in a state of flux and requires time to establish. The relationship was debated strongly at the recent GSSC meeting in Perth, Feb 2009 and those outcomes should be included in any discussions. Establishing linkages and integration of plans with ETWS. Guidance based on the linkage, the timings and the KPT/KPI. Establishing linkages and integration of plans with ETMSS, Guidance based on the linkage, the timings and the KPT/KPI. Establishing linkages and integration of plans with WGNE/CAS, guidance on any precedence of this linkage. Pilot task team on data management. Comments welcomed on the brief outlined for the team and wider comment on the GODAE data service. Nomenclature and symbology: Survey of the ocean community and standards organisations to draft a position paper for community wide comment. Comments and Interest in this activity among the ET's. Notification of documents and links to information that should be included in this survey or activities previously undertaken to conduct such a survey. Developing services that have a demonstrated impact is a high priority area. The ET-OFS plans to identify key user groups and undertake actions to encourage the specification of user requirements and guide the improvement of services to close the gaps identified. Comment is sort on the strategies that might be employed with the other ET's and the user applications within their respective ET's that could be aided by this effort. JCOMM support for inter-agency distribution of operational products for consensus forecast guidance and super-ensembles. The communication costs to operational agencies are minimised if a central database can receive ftp push and can re-distribute ftp push to agencies. It is proposed that JCOMM could serve as the portal for this product exchange. _____________ Appendices: 3 Deliverables and/or Achievements planned for presentation to JCOMM-III Expert Team on Ocean Forecasting SystemsDeliverables and/or AchievementsSummary of the Activity(ies)Decisions/Actions (if any)Recommendations (if any)Formal Recommendation or Resolution required for JCOMM-III (Y/N; and subject)Contribute to Expected Result(s) (WMO/IOC)Invite and confirm the membership of the expert teamInvite members from each GODAE system in operation at the time of formation Mercator UKMetOffcie/FOAM NRL/HYCOM-NCODA NOAA/NCEP BLUElink MRI Membership to include representation from MyOcean and US-IOOS Confirm chairman Review the membership criterionEndorsed members Adrian Hines Masafumi Kamachi Ming Ji Gary Brassington Endorsed temporary members Jim Cummings Eric Dombrowsky Endorse chairman Gary Brassington Membership be expanded to include additional members. Nominations for additional members: Fraser Davidson, Canada (endorsed/accepted) Jiang Zhu, IAP China Membership numbers to be extended to 10 in the terms of reference Review and confirm the terms of reference provided by JCOMM MAN Review the terms of reference Define the scope of operational forecast systems to be considered by the expert team A working definition will be based on the existing GODAE systemsTOR endorsed Scope working definition endorsed The scope will be retained on the agendaThe TOR and scope should remain open to revision over the next intersessional periodDefine the relationship between JCOMM ET-OFS and GODAE OceanViewGODAE OceanView(GOV) is the proposed follow-on science team to GODAE which concluded in 2008. The governance structure, funding and activities of GOV have not been completed. The precise relationship is expected to evolve as more becomes known. A draft Memorandum of Understanding was prepared by GOV and communicated to ET-OFS chair to informally define the roles and relationship The document will be a "record of understanding" and an informal agreement A revised ROU will be returned to GOV chairsJCOMM MAN provide regular guidance on any changes to the governance structure and TOR that might impact this relationshipInvestigate the scope of specific projects for ET-OFS over the next inter-sessional periodSpecific projects: Guide to operational ocean forecasting Nomenclature and symbology Operational performance monitoring Observational requirements for forecasting systems Services and user requirementsAction to scope the projects distributed amongst ET-OFS membersScoping of each project be permitted the maximum time to provide recommendations.Formal advice required on the timetable for final submission of ET-OFS plan.WMO ER 1, 2, 6 and 7 / all IOC ERPilot task team to prepare a report on the scope, objectives, membership and hosting arrangements for a task team on Data Management Formation of pilot task team Frederique Blanc, CLS, France Tim Pugh, Bureau of Meteorology Bob Keeley, DFO, Canada Steve Hankins, NOAA, USA Pilot task team brief: Review the current status of the implementation of GODAE data services amongst the operational agencies; Deconstruct the "GODAE data service" into functional elements from a software engineering viewpoint; Assess each functional element for their impact to inter-agency data sharing, interoperability and the inter-agency exchange of fit-for-purpose software. Evaluate each functional element for the following: Criticality to the GODAE data service Availability of standard equivalents and frameworks Fitness for purpose, maturity and readiness for standardization Prepare a recommendation for the scope, objectives, membership and hosting arrangement for a task team in data management Report the findings to JCOMM ET-OOFS April 2009, for inclusion in ET-OOFS May plans for JCOMM/MANPilot task team members confirmed. Frederique Blanc has agreed to coordinate the team. Brief and timeframe provided to the task teamPendingNoneWMO ER 5 / all IOC ER Programme Area Work Plan for the remaining intersessional period Expert Team on Ocean Forecasting SystemsDeliverablesSummary of the Activity(ies)By whom (Group/Team)Key Performance Target(s) and Indicator(s)Risks (likelihood of non-occurrence (low, medium, high) and severity of the consequences from occurrence (low, medium high) Contribute to Expected Result(s) (WMO/IOC)Links with other Programmes in WMO and IOCSupport the development of real time operational forecast capability for ocean state and circulation with improved performanceA document will be prepared and annually reviewed to describe the parameters for the operational ocean forecast systems. The document will be distributed to agencies to report annually. The information will be collated as an annual report on the state of operational forecast systems.ET-OFS Chair / SecretariatKPT: Distributed to operational agencies KPI: Surveys returned prior to annual meetingLikelihood: Medium Severity: High WMO ER 1, 2 / all IOC ERSupport the development of real time operational forecast capability for ocean state and circulation with improved performanceSurvey and report annually on the state of operational systems from the agencies. Identify and encourage best practice. Operational agencies and ET-OFS KPT: Annual report published by JCOMM KPI: Feedback and distribution of reportLikelihood: Medium Severity: High WMO ER 1, 6 and 7 / all IOC ERETMSS, ETWSSpecification of observational requirements for forecasting systemsA document will be prepared and annually reviewed to describe the parameters for the observational requirements for operational ocean forecast systems. The document will be distributed to agencies to report annually. The information will be collated as an annual report and included in JCOMM documentation.ET-OFS Chair / SecretariatKPT: Distributed to operational agencies KPI: Surveys returned prior to annual meetingLikelihood: Medium Severity: High WMO ER 1, 4 / all IOC ERSpecification of observational requirements for forecasting systemsSurvey and report annually on the observations used and required by operational ocean forecast systems. Identify the quality, reliability and impact of the observations.Operational agencies and ET-OFSKPT: Annual report published by JCOMM, Observational requirements document updated KPI: Feedback and distribution of reportLikelihood: Medium Severity: HighWMO ER 1, 4 / all IOC EROPA, GSSCGuide to ocean forecastingDevelop the table of contents to establish the initial scope of the guideAdrian Hines ET-OFS, JCOMM SPA, Operational agenciesKPT: Table of contents established KPI: Operational agency and community wide feedbackLikelihood: Low Severity: MediumWMO ER 1 / all IOC ERNomenclature and symbologySurvey the ocean community and standards organisations to draft a position paper for community wide comment Adrian Hines ET-OFS, JCOMM SPA, Operational agenciesKPT: Position paper endorsed by JCOMM MAN and distributed for comment KPI: Broad community feedback and convergence of opinionLikelihood: Low Severity: HighWMO ER 1, 7 / all IOC ERContinuous and posterior performance monitoring of operational ocean forecast systemsEstablish Argo as a basis for continuous monitoring of operational ocean forecast systemsGary Brassington, Jim Cummings ET-OFS, Operational agenciesKPT: Continuous performance monitoring implemented by agencies KPI: Online graphics of performance metrics availableLikelihood: Low Severity: MediumWMO ER 1 / all IOC ERSupport the development of quality services from agencies and improve the impact to user applicationsSurvey and report annually on operational agency services, quality, usage, applications and economic/social impactsMing Ji, Fraser Davidson, ET-OFSKPT: Annual report published by JCOMM, Observational requirements document updated KPI: Feedback and distribution of reportLikelihood: Medium Severity: HighWMO ER 7 / all IOC ER Programme Area Work Plan for the next intersessional period Expert Team on Ocean Forecasting SystemsDeliverablesPriority (low, medium, high)Summary of the Activity(ies)By whom (Group/Team) (Suggest changes on the PA structure if required)Key Performance Target(s) and Indicator(s)TimelinesRisks (likelihood of non-occurrence (low, medium, high) and severity of the consequences from occurrence (low, medium high)Contribute to Expected Result(s) (WMO/IOC)Links with other Programmes in WMO and IOC2010201120122013Communications and inter-governmental linkagesHighCommunications within the oceanographic community of ET-OFS activities and progressET-OFS Chair / SecretariatKPT: Updated PowerPoint presentation of status available KPI: Report of meetings attendedxxxxLikelihood: Low Severity: High As aboveHighEstablish linkages and integration of plans with ETWSET-OFS Chair / SecretariatKPT: Action plan available KPI: Integration into ET-OFS project plansxxLikelihood: Medium Severity: Medium WMO ER 1, 6 and 7 / all IOC ERETWSAs aboveHighEstablish linkages and integration of plans with ETMSSET-OFS Chair / SectretariatKPT: Action plan available KPI: Integration into ET-OFS project plansxxLikelihood: Medium Severity: Medium WMO ER 6, 7 / all IOC ERETMSSAs aboveHighEstablish linkages and integration of plans with WGNEET-OFS Chair, Sectretariat, GOV , WGNEKPT: Action plan available KPI: Integration into ET-OFS project plansxxLikelihood: Medium Severity: Medium WMO ER 1, 2 / all IOC ERCAS/WGNESupport the development of real time operational forecast capability for ocean state and circulation with improved performanceHigh Survey and report annually on the state of operational systems from the agencies. Identify and encourage best practice. Operational agencies and ET-OFS KPT: Annual report published by JCOMM KPI: Feedback and distribution of reportxxxxLikelihood: Medium Severity: High WMO ER 1, 6. 7 / all IOC ERETMSS, ETWSas aboveMediumReview the leading edge science reports and issue advisories on the fitness for purpose of new science and technology GODAE OceanView and ET-OFS KPT: Annual report distributed to members KPI: Integration into future systems and corresponding performance improvementsxxxxLikelihood: Low Severity: High WMO ER 1 / all IOC ERas aboveHighReview the performance of operational systems and identify new science and technology targetsPerformance monitoring teamKPT: Annual report distributed to GODAE OceanView KPI: Science target setting in GODAE OceanView and science advances in responsexxxxLikelihood: Low Severity: MediumWMO ER 1 / all IOC ERSpecification of observational requirements for forecasting systemsHighSurvey and report annually on the observations used and required by operational ocean forecast systems. Identify the quality, reliability and impact of the observations.Operational agencies and ET-OFSKPT: Annual report published by JCOMM, Observational requirements document updated KPI: Feedback and distribution of reportxxxxLikelihood: Medium Severity: HighWMO ER 4 / all IOC EROPA, GSSCAs aboveHighReview the leading edge observational technologies and issue advisories on the status changes to existing observational systems and newGSSC, ET-OFSKPT: Annual report distributed to GSSC KPI: Observational targets setting in GSSC and programsxxxxLikelihood: Low Severity: MediumWMO ER 4 / all IOC ERJCOMM OPA, GSSCAs aboveMediumReview the performance of the operational/research ocean observing systems and assess the impact and identify new science and technology targetsGOV, ET-OFSKPT: Joint annual report distributed to GSSC KPI: Observational targets included in GSSC plans and technological advances in responsexxxxLikelihood: Low Severity: MediumWMO ER 1, 4 / all IOC ERGODAE OceanView, GSSC, JCOMM OPAGuide to ocean forecastingHighDevelop and implement a staged plan to complete chapters of the documentET-OFS, JCOMM SPA, Operational agenciesKPT: Staged plan endorsed by JCOMM MAN KPI: Sections completed to timetablexxxxLikelihood: Medium Severity: HighWMO ER 1 / all IOC ERAs aboveHighMaintain, review and extend the guide documentET-OFS, JCOMM SPA, Operational agenciesKPT: Publish annual versions of the guide through JCOMM KPI: Agency adoptionxxxLikelihood: Low Severity: HighWMO ER 1 / all IOC ERNomenclature and symbologyHighSurvey the ocean community and standards organisations to draft a position paper for community wide comment ET-OFS, JCOMM SPA, Operational agenciesKPT: Position paper endorsed by JCOMM MAN and distributed for comment KPI: Broad community feedback and convergence of opinionxxxxLikelihood: Low Severity: HighWMO ER 1, 6, 7 / all IOC ERAs aboveHighDevelop and implement a staged plan to specify and document the standards manual for operational ocean forecast systemsET-OFS, JCOMM SPA, Operational agenciesKPT: Staged plan endorsed by JCOMM MAN, KPI: Sections completed to timetablexxxxLikelihood: Medium Severity: HighWMO ER 1 / all IOC ERAs aboveHighMaintain and extend a standards manual on the nomenclature and symbology for operational ocean forecasting. ET-OFS, JCOMM SPA, Operational agenciesKPT: Revised manual published through JCOMM KPI: Operational agency adoptionxxxLikelihood: Low Severity: HighWMO ER 1, 6, 7 / all IOC ERContinuous and posterior performance monitoring of operational ocean forecast systemsHigh Establish and extend the continuous monitoring of operational ocean forecast systems ET-OFS, Operational agenciesKPT: Continuous performance monitoring implemented by agencies KPI: Online graphics of performance metrics availablexxxxLikelihood: Low Severity: MediumWMO ER 1, 7 / all IOC ERAs aboveHighReport annually on the performance of operational ocean forecast systems basedET-OFS, Operational agenciesKPT: Annual report published by JCOMM KPI: Feedback and distribution of reportxxxxLikelihood: Low Severity: HighWMO ER 1, 7 / all IOC ERAs aboveMediumDesign new and revise existing operational performance monitoring metrics. Review new science.ET-OFS, GOVKPT: Revision of operational performance metrics KPI: Agency implementation of revisionsxxxxLikelihood: Low Severity: MediumWMO ER 1 / all IOC ERSupport the development of quality services from agencies and improve the impact to user applicationsHighSurvey and report annually on operational agency services, quality, usage, applications and economic/social impactsOperational agencies and ET-OFSKPT: Annual report published by JCOMM, Observational requirements document updated KPI: Feedback and distribution of reportxxxxLikelihood: Medium Severity: HighWMO ER 1, 7 / all IOC ERAs aboveHighSurvey international user groups and report annually on the products and service quality and performance requirementsET-OFS, User groupsKPT: Annual report distributed to agencies and user groups KPI: Greater engagement from user groups in ocean forecastingxxxxLikelihood: Medium Severity: HighWMO ER 1, 7 / all IOC ERAs aboveMediumInitiate specific action plans to address areas of weakness in services to meet user requirementsET-OFS, JCOMM SPAKPT: Action plan to address areas of weakness KPI: Measurable improvement to economic/social impactxxxLikelihood: Low Severity: HighWMO ER 1, 7 / all IOC ERInter-agency distribution of operational ocean forecastsHigh.Design new and revise the existing suite of operational forecast products distributedET-OFSKPT: Specification of inter-agency products KPI: Implementation in agency operationsxxxLikelihood: Medium Severity: MediumWMO ER 1, 7 / all IOC ERAs aboveHighDevelop and maintain the inter-agency term and conditions agreement for the "guide to ocean forecasting"ET-OFS, Operational agenciesKPT: Terms and conditions included in "guide to ocean forecasting" KPI: Operational agency agreementsxxxxLikelihood: Medium Severity: HighWMO ER 1, 7 / all IOC ERAs aboveMediumSupport the distribution of operational products. The distribution and communication costs are minimized if a central database can receive ftp push and can re-distribute ftp push to agencies. The proposed host is JCOMM.JCOMM, Operational agenciesKPT: Central JCOMM repository available KPI: Agencies sending and receiving inter-agency productsxxLikelihood: Medium Severity: Medium (alternative mechanism can be pursued)WMO ER 1, 7 / all IOC ERAs aboveMediumSupport the development and sharing of systems to visualize and integrate inter-agency productsET-OFS, Operational agenciesKPT: Open source, multi-platform software package available to agencies KPI: Uptake of common software and active contributorsxxLikelihood: High Severity: MediumWMO ER 1, 7 / all IOC ERAs aboveMediumReview the leading edge science in consensus forecasting and super-ensembles and issue advisories to promote usage.GOV, ET-OFSKPT: GODAE Oceanview include super-ensembles as a science direction KPI: Science advances reported to ET-OFSxxxLikelihood: Medium Severity: LowWMO ER 1 / all IOC ER     SCG-IV/Doc. 5.5, p.  PAGE 2 SCG-IV/Doc. 5.5, Appendix A, p.  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