ࡱ> ^`]` 03 bjbjss i80FFFFFFF$+++P++<B:D,Z,p,p,p,K-K-K-33333369$><h>L9F~/K-K-~/~/9FFp,p,9000~/pFp,Fp,30~/300:2,FFF3p,8, @j1O+/4$3b3d:0B:<3 >"0^>F3>FF3K--^0-.Ly.K-K-K-990K-K-K-B:~/~/~/~/  j4"FFFFFF  WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION ________________________  INTERGOVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION (OF UNESCO) ________________________ TCP/JCOMM WORKSHOP ON STORM SURGE AND WAVE FORECASTING FIFTH WORKSHOP MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA, 1 TO 5 DECEMBER 2008SSW-W-V/Doc. 1 (21.Xl.2008) __________ ITEM 11 Original: ENGLISH SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING DEMONSTRATION PROJECT (Submitted by the WMO Secretariat) Summary and Purpose of Document This document provides information on the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) and its Cascading concept of the forecasting process.  ACTION PROPOSED The Workshop participants are invited to: Note and comment on the information contained in this document as appropriate; Identify the needs or requirements of RA V NMHSs in relation to guidance for wave and storm surge forecasting. ______________________ DISCUSSION 1. The SWFDP is a project initiated by the Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) to further explore and enhance the use of outputs of existing NWP systems of the GDPFS, including ensemble prediction systems (EPS). Its aim is to contribute to capacity building and to help developing countries in particular to be able to access and make the best possible use of existing NWP products to improve forecasts and warnings of hazardous weather conditions. Global-scale products, as well as data, other products and information provided by other regional centres (e.g. limited-area NWP), are integrated and synthesized by a WMO designated Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC). These, in turn, provide daily guidance for short-range (days 1 and2) and medium-range (out to day-5) on heavy rain and strong winds to participating National Meteorological Centres of the region. This is implementing a Cascading concept of the forecasting process. A CBS Project Steering Group provides the general direction for SWFDP. Two documents have been developed for this purpose: SWFDP Overall Project Plan (rev. June 2008), and Guidebook for Planning Regional Subprojects (rev. September 2008). 2. The SWFDP in it first implementation in Southeast Africa completed its one-year field phase in November 2007. It focused on improving weather forecasting and warning services for heavy rain and strong winds and involved global and regional centres to build the capacity of the NMHSs of Botswana, Madagascar, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. The participating global centres included ECMWF, NCEP (U.S.A.), and Met Office (UK). The participating regional centres included RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Runion (Tropical Cyclone forecasting) and ACMAD. A final report has been drafted on this first regional subproject of SWFDP and is available at the WMO Web site:  HYPERLINK "http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Reports/SWFDP FINAL REPORT_27feb08.pdf"http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Reports/SWFDP%20FINAL%20REPORT_27feb08.pdf 3. The project revitalized the important operational role of RSMCs of the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) to synthesize and to provide forecasting guidance to regional groups of NMCs, and in this case saw the strengthening role and functions of RSMC Pretoria for the geographical region of Southern Africa. 4. This CBS project is built on the GDPFS in collaboration with the Public Weather Services (PWS) programme. The project, managed by a Regional Sub-project Management Team and facilitated by the Secretariat, experienced successes from the very outset and strongly contributed to regional capacity building; outcomes that were consistently noted in progress reports, and again endorsed in the project final evaluation. The fifteenth WMO Congress (Cg-XV) decided that the projects concept should be expanded and implemented throughout RA I and repeated in other WMO Regions. 5. A number of WMO Programmes, including those of Regional Associations, have expressed interest in the SWFDP. The SWFDP concept is considered to provide a mechanism for accelerating technology transfer to developing countries and as a near operational facility for implementing existing and proven, or new, technologies and products to improve public weather services and national capability to reduce the risk of disasters. The Aeronautical and Marine meteorological programmes and the Hydrology programme have expressed favourable interest to participate in the SWFDP. The World Weather Research Programme has expressed interest in using the SWFDP structure to possibly enhance technology transfer of EPS technology through THORPEX/TIGGE outputs, and through its Nowcasting activities. 6. The SWFDP concept is focused on accelerating the implementation of existing and proven operational technologies and their outputs (NWP- and EPS-based products for medium-range forecasting, or NWP or satellite-based or radar-based products for very short-range forecasting, etc.). However once the SWFDP near-operational demonstration framework has been established and working within an actual implemented project, it could be considered as a possible vehicle for the implementation of additional specialized NWP, including Limited Area Models (LAM), for various sector specific applications, such as for the provision of marine meteorological forecasting services (e.g. sea-state prediction). 7. As an example, the ECMWF has recently implemented new NWP/EPS-based products for predicting sea-state, with global coverage. Through a relevant SWFDP implementation, where marine forecasting responsibilities are included and these capabilities are required, these products, could be introduced to operational forecasting, first over a demonstration period to ensure their accessibility and reliability, and accompanied by suitable guidance provided by a regional centre. 8. The SWFDP could also be considered for the implementation of new technologies, such as new outputs from research and development activities that contribute to enhancing capabilities of WMO Members to produce better weather forecasts and warnings (WMO Strategic Plan Expected Result 1). _____________     SSW-W-V/Doc. 1, p.  PAGE 3 => # K M P 5 f h ͸͍~i~_Q=ͦ&hv@CJOJQJ^JaJmH sH hvCJOJQJ^JaJhv@mH sH (hv6CJOJQJ]^JaJmH sH hv6CJOJQJmH sH (hv5CJOJQJ\^JaJmH sH hv"hvCJOJQJ^JaJmH sH (hvhvCJOJQJ^JaJmHsHhvCJOJQJmH sH hvOJQJhv5CJOJQJmH sH hvCJOJQJmH sH #$=>?vw $:$Ifa$$If $$G$Ifa$Okd$$IfT40v(G44 xaf4T d$If $$Ifa$ d$G$If  2     # . / 7 8 K :$If$If$G$If :$G$If d$G$If $:$Ifa$ $$Ifa$ K L M N O P x $d1$a$$1$a$$1$a$rkde$$IfT\v(M 44 xaT f g h i y vll^ $ & F 1$a$ $1$]a$$N1$^N`a$$1$a$ $d1$a$9kd$$IfTB44 xaT$d$1$Ifa$ $d$1$Ifa$$$ `$1$G$Ifa$ h i y e ~  >g456        ! 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