ࡱ> sur` *bjbjss AZ~"0  ---8-d..T R...../"0 0KKKK<1LOQFThVQ [2//[2[2Q ..4R<333[2X . .K3[2K33?G 3H.. pLM@-2dGKJRHRG:0W3|0W,3HKH0W _H(00^3 1LV1(0(0(0QQ3X(0(0(0R[2[2[2[2 D     WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION ________________________  INTERGOVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION (OF UNESCO) ________________________ JOINT WMO/IOC TECHNICAL COMMISSION FOR OCEANOGRAPHY AND MARINE METEOROLOGY (JCOMM) MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE SEVENTH SESSION MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA, 8 TO 12 DECEMBER 2008MAN-VII/Doc. 5.3 (06.Xl.2008) __________ ITEM 5.3 Original: ENGLISH SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING DEMONSTRATION PROJECT EXTENSION TO INCLUDE MARINE FORECASTING ASPECTS (Submitted by the WMO Secretariat) Summary and Purpose of Document This document provides information on the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) and its Cascading concept of the forecasting process. It also proposes an extension of this project to include Marine Meteorological forecasting services. ACTION PROPOSED The Management Committee is invited to: Note and comment on the information contained in this document as appropriate; Review the proposal for extension of the SWFDP to include Marine Meteorological forecasting services; Advise on JCOMM interactions with and response to the proposal for extension the SWFDP to include Marine Meteorological forecasting services. ______________________ DISCUSSION Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) 1. The SWFDP is a project initiated by the Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) to further explore and enhance the use of outputs of existing NWP systems of the GDPFS, including ensemble prediction systems (EPS). Its aim is to contribute to capacity building and to help developing countries in particular to be able to access and make the best possible use of existing NWP products to improve forecasts and warnings of hazardous weather conditions. Global-scale products, as well as data, other products and information provided by other regional centres (e.g. limited-area NWP), are integrated and synthesized by a WMO designated Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC). These, in turn, provide daily guidance for short-range (days 1 and2) and medium-range (out to day-5) on heavy rain and strong winds to participating National Meteorological Centres of the region. This is implementing a Cascading concept of the forecasting process. A CBS Project Steering Group provides the general direction for SWFDP. Two documents have been developed for this purpose: SWFDP Overall Project Plan (rev. June 2008), and Guidebook for Planning Regional Subprojects (rev. September 2008). 2. The SWFDP in it first implementation in Southeast Africa completed its one-year field phase in November 2007. It focused on improving weather forecasting and warning services for heavy rain and strong winds and involved global and regional centres to build the capacity of the NMHSs of Botswana, Madagascar, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. The participating global centres included ECMWF, NCEP (U.S.A.), and Met Office (UK). The participating regional centres included RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Runion (Tropical Cyclone forecasting) and ACMAD. A final report has been drafted on this first regional subproject of SWFDP and is available at the WMO Web site:  HYPERLINK "http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Reports/SWFDP%20FINAL%20REPORT_27feb08.pdf" http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Reports/SWFDP%20FINAL%20REPORT_27feb08.pdf 3. The project revitalized the important operational role of RSMCs of the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) to synthesize and to provide forecasting guidance to regional groups of NMCs, and in this case saw the strengthening role and functions of RSMC Pretoria for the geographical region of Southern Africa. 4. This CBS project is built on the GDPFS in collaboration with the Public Weather Services (PWS) programme. The project, managed by a Regional Sub-project Management Team and facilitated by the Secretariat, experienced successes from the very outset and strongly contributed to regional capacity building; outcomes that were consistently noted in progress reports, and again endorsed in the project final evaluation. The fifteenth WMO Congress (Cg-XV) decided that the projects concept should be expanded and implemented throughout RA I and repeated in other WMO Regions. 5. A number of WMO Programmes, including those of Regional Associations, have expressed interest in the SWFDP. The SWFDP concept is considered to provide a mechanism for accelerating technology transfer to developing countries and as a near operational facility for implementing existing and proven, or new, technologies and products to improve public weather services and national capability to reduce the risk of disasters. The Aeronautical and Marine meteorological programmes and the Hydrology programme have expressed favourable interest to participate in the SWFDP. The World Weather Research Programme has expressed interest in using the SWFDP structure to possibly enhance technology transfer of EPS technology through THORPEX/TIGGE outputs, and through its Nowcasting activities. Extension to include Marine Meteorological Forecasting Services 6. The SWFDP concept is focused on accelerating the implementation of existing and proven operational technologies and their outputs (NWP- and EPS-based products for medium-range forecasting, or NWP or satellite-based or radar-based products for very short-range forecasting, etc.). However once the SWFDP near-operational demonstration framework has been established and working within an actual implemented project, it could be considered as a possible vehicle for the implementation of additional specialized NWP, including Limited Area Models (LAM), for various sector specific applications, such as for the provision of marine meteorological forecasting services (e.g. sea-state prediction). 7. As an example, the ECMWF has recently implemented new NWP/EPS-based products for predicting sea-state, with global coverage. Through a relevant SWFDP implementation, where marine forecasting responsibilities are included and these capabilities are required (e.g. West Africa), these products, could be introduced to operational forecasting, first over a demonstration period to ensure their accessibility and reliability, and accompanied by suitable guidance provided by a regional centre. 8. The SWFDP is already addressing issues pertinent to marine meteorological forecasting, in particular associated with strong surface winds and heavy precipitation. Marine meteorological hazards such as poor visibility and fog, and ice accretion (major hazards for all vessels, in addition to extreme sea state conditions) can be predicted from NWP model variables or parameters. Post-processing diagnostic tools, requiring fine-tuning to local/regional data, are also available. Many NMHSs of developing countries do not currently have the capacity to produce model forecasts of the required parameters and run the post-processing diagnostic tools on their own, but would greatly benefit from the cascading approach of RSMCs running such models and tools for other NMHSs of the region. 9. SWFDP training that is provided on the GDPFS and PWS aspects indirectly benefit marine meteorological forecasting, as many of the trained forecasters also carryout marine-related forecasting duties. 10. The environmental emergency that has inflicted damage to homes, livelihoods and infrastructure in many parts of the Maldives as a result of large wind-induced waves (swell), which caused widespread flooding in the exposed islands of the country in May and again in June 2007, and the recent tropical cyclone Nargis that caused such devastation and loss of lives in the most populous and low-lying areas of Myanmar in May 2008, had once again demonstrated the need for a world-wide coordinated system that would make available to all Members the daily marine processed data and information they require for real-time uses. 11. ETWS has inventoried the existing operational sea-state models and forecasting systems, and noted that these are widely available among the existing network of Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) of the Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS). Therefore, an additional consideration could be the possible recognition of a role that a regional centre might have in the Cascading Forecasting Process for Marine Forecasting Services aspects. The current GDPFS does not include specifically such a RSMC with this Activity Specialization. 12. The SWFDP could also be considered for the implementation of new technologies, such as new outputs from research and development activities that contribute to enhancing capabilities of WMO Members to produce better weather forecasts and warnings (WMO Strategic Plan Expected Result 1). _____________     MAN-VII/Doc. 5.3, p.  PAGE 3 => " # ' ) * / 6 7 : ? 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