ࡱ> [eZ| bbjbj““ __Q R R XXXlll8lllOt||Nl x N N N N N N N$wP-S0NX@N0NfN'''fRX N' N''nE6"K`{h-#lJ MN0OJS$S@KKSXM'0N0N%6OSR X : Restricted distribution ICG/CARIBE EWS-XV/4.2 Paris, 6 April 2021  INTERGOVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION (of UNESCO) Fifteenth Session of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE EWS-XV) Online 27-29 April 2021 Agenda Item 4.2 Working Group 2 Hazard Assessment Progress Report  Introduction, Summary, Considerations/Challenges The Working Group 2 (WG2) on Tsunami Hazard Assessment is one of four main working groups within the ICG/CARIBE-EWS. Its primary objective is to advise the ICG on the identification and characterization of coastal hazards, their assessment and the required modeling. Among the functions of this working group is to assist the ICG/CARIBE-EWS Member States on assessing their tsunami threat. During the intersessional period 2019-2021 the following activities were held within Working Group 2 (WG2) framework: Experts Meetings: Sources of tsunamis for the Lesser Antilles A Scientific Experts Meetings was held in Martinique from the18th to the 20th of March 2019. The meeting was organized by IOC/UNESCO and WG2, and hosted by Observatoire Volcanologique et Sismologique de la Martinique. The goal of the meeting was to identify credible tsunami sources that could potentially affect the islands of the Lesser Antilles Arc. The technical report from the meeting was prepared by WG2 in the intersessional period and is available at the UNESDOC digital library. The Report delineates the analyzed credible tsunami sources identified by the invited group of experts. The tsunami sources, all related to the subduction of North and South America plates beneath the Caribbean plate with potential to impact the Lesser Antilles, were binned into the following groups: Subduction Zone related sources, Island Arc Normal sources, Island Arc Parallel sources, and Volcanic and landslide-induced sources. Caribbean and Adjacent Regions Tsunami Sources and Models (CATSAM) webmap The CATSAM (Caribbean and Adjacent Regions Tsunami Sources and Models) webmap has been publicly available since of May 2018 at the following website: https://maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/CATSAM/ The CATSAM map viewer was developed to help identify potential tsunami sources. CATSAM is intended to provide modelers and hazard assessment professionals with an understanding of the UNESCO/IOC led tsunami modeling efforts, as well as how those efforts overlap with the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and colocated World Data Service (WDS) for Geophysics Global Historical Tsunami Database. The following enhancements have been made to CATSAM in the intersessional period: (i) Additional modeled tsunami scenarios: Jamaica, Aruba, Gulf of Fonseca, Lesser Antilles, Panama, and Lisbon available (ii) Tsunami Ready Community layer added. This was done in collaboration with Working Group 4. Currently only Caribbean coastal communities (iii) Color-hillshade visualization improved (iv) Fixed and improved code The following tasks list below were completed during the intersessional period. For both tasks 3.1 and 3.2, it should be emphasized that the documents are the absolute minimum guidance and that coastal hazards modelers performing work in a selected area of interest should determine the final requirements. Also, the documents were developed with a significant focus on the tsunami hazard, as such other coastal hazards modelers will need to review in greater detail for their requirements. Minimum bathymetric requirements for modeling of coastal hazards At the Fourteenth Session of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS, a request was put forth for WG2 to provide information on minimum bathymetric requirements for modeling of coastal hazards. This task was completed during the intersessional period. Minimum topographic requirements for modeling of coastal hazards The Minimum bathymetric requirements for modeling of coastal hazards (Section 3.1) guidance document were presented at the ICG/CARIBE-EWS Officers meeting held in May 6-8, 2020. As a result, it was requested that WG2 provide and develop a companion document on the minimum topographic requirements for modeling of coastal hazards. This task was completed during the intersessional period. DEM and Inundation Modeling work NOAA National Centers for Environmental Informations (NCEI) digital elevation model (DEM) development for Belize (one community) as part of a U.S. Agency for International Development/Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA)-funded International Tsunami Ready pilot. The NOAA PMEL Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) provided a regional tsunami modeling workshop, in Belize the April 29 - May 3, 2019. The workshop was organized by NOAA Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program with funding from USAID/OFDA. A significant outcome of the workshop was the ground truthing of the DEM revealed significant elevation differences. This further emphasized the need for elevation data sharing, particularly for the development of DEMs. Member States often do not share their elevation data because these are seldom in the public domain; government agencies or the military often own the data. WG2 discussed that this issue has been a major hurdle in the tasks of WG2. At ICG/CARIBE-EWS Officers meeting held on May 6-8, 2020, WG2 arranged for a DEM expert to discuss challenges and consequences of lack of data sharing in regards to DEM development. DEM Training Workshop Proposal As a result of the data sharing challenges mentioned, WG2 coordinated the development of a proposal for Digital Elevation Model Development Training Workshop. The need for improved capabilities in the area of collecting, processing, analyzing, and modeling elevation data (topographic and bathymetric) has been well documented by UNESCO/IOCs Workshop on Tsunami Modelling & Mitigation 2014 report, a product of the Experts Meeting Workshop on Tsunami Modeling and Mitigation held December 1-3, 2014 in Cartagena de Indias, Colombia. The DEM Workshop proposal was developed by WG2 Chair and DEM experts from NCEI/WDS. The proposal was submitted May 2020 to ICG/CARIBE EWS Technical Secretary, as requested. The proposal is intended to promote a sustainable approach to DEM development in the region, when data sharing is not possible. Data Trust and the Caribbean Marine Atlas A recommendation presented in the aforementioned Workshop on Tsunami Modelling & Mitigation 2014 report included the formation of a Data Trust, to hold the necessary data in the correct format and quality, and who would be in charge of distributing the data only to authorized users that have registered with IOC. Recognizing the challenges in developing this entity, WG2 has been in communication with the relevant points of contact at the Caribbean Marine Atlas (https://www.caribbeanmarineatlas.net/). This existing resource is an adequate regional repository for Member States to upload elevation data and/or associated metadata. This action also addresses the recommendation at the Fourteenth Session of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS to explore ways to strengthen collaboration with the bathymetric data providers to assemble a comprehensive bathymetric dataset available for Member States to better understand regional coverage gaps in bathymetric data. International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) and Meso American Caribbean Sea Hydrographic Commission (MACHC), General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO) During the intersessional period the following activities pertaining to IHO, MACHC and GEBCO were performed: WG2 members attended MACHC-21 Conference from November 30-December 3, 2020. The conference involved discussions on data sharing, capacity building, and other opportunities. A goal defined is to develop regional coverage for gap analysis. IHO, GEBCO, and MACHC are well-positioned to better work towards this task, and WG2 should help facilitate. This effort will work towards the following ICG/CARIBE-EWS Implementation Plan goal: Compile both seismic event catalogues and homogeneous and easily-accessible bathymetric data from coastal regions. Further, a joint response from WG2 was submitted to the Survey on GEBCO User requirements and contributions. A total of nine WG2 members contributed to the survey response. A highlight of WG2s survey response, includes a request for: GEBCO to provide access to any data collected for shallow water regions, not just the gridded bathymetric products. Shallow water data are critical, thus enhanced attention to shallow waters (including the provision of raw data) would be welcome from the tsunami scientific community. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) At the Fourteenth Session of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS ICG/CARIBE-EWS, it was noted that the Caribbean will benefit from the implementation of a PTHA project considering best practices and current state of the knowledge. As a result, WG2 developed a Letter of support for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment in the Caribbean during the intersessional period. In October 2019, the Letter was formally adopted by ICG/CARIBE-EWS Chair. The intent of the Letter is to encourage PTHA projects in the region with ICG/CARIBE-EWS, specifically WG2, as a potential resource of expertise. Tsunami Coastal Assessment Tool (TsuCAT), version update The NOAA PMEL Center for Tsunami Research, included in WG2 membership, in collaboration with the International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC), released version 4.2 of TsuCAT. The new version, released in the intersessional period (September 2020), has the following improvements: (i) A new ability to be a "stand-alone" product. (ii) New improvements and updates to both graphical and text messages in the Test Messages feature to better match PTWC regional output. (iii) Added both the requested epicenter location, as well as the position of the closest epicenter in the catalog. (iv) Improvements in selecting the closest source for very large events. (v) New additions to the catalog. Historical Tsunami posters updated NCEI/WDS, included in WG2 membership, and ITIC updated the Global Historical Tsunami, Significant Earthquake, and Significant Volcanic Eruption posters through 2020. As well as being general public outreach materials, the posters are used as historical references for experts and as a way to communicate to the media during an event. The posters are distributed to warning and response personnel by the ITIC and are available digitally through both NCEI/WDS and the ITIC. Additionally, NCEI/WDS and ITIC updated the Historical Tsunami Effects in Caribbean, Central America, Mexico and Adjacent Regions poster 2020. The posters are distributed to warning and response personnel by the ITIC and are available digitally through both NCEI/WDS and the ITIC, in both English and Spanish. Publications WG2 members have collaborated with outside experts to publish the following article (in press): Zamora, N. Arroyo-Solrzano, M., Porras, H., Chacn-Barrantes, S., Rivera, F., Murillo, A. Evaluacin del potencial de tsunamis locales con base en anlisis sismo-tectnico en el Caribe de Costa Rica. Revista Geolgica de Amrica Central, vol. esp. (in press). A WG2 member presented a poster relevant to the objectives of WG2 at the 2020 AGU Fall Meeting on 09 December 2020. This study takes the preliminary steps to statistically determine the quality of a regional (i.e., Caribbean and Southwest Pacific) historical tsunami catalog based on the function of time, location and observed runup height in the global database. The goal is to better understand the occurrence of all known earthquake-generated tsunamis to help characterize future tsunami hazards. The abstract has the following citation: Arcos, N. P., Wright, L., Varner, J., Stroker, K. (2020), Regional Tsunami Catalog Completeness of a Global Database, Abstract NH014-0001 presented at 2020 Fall Meeting, AGU. Recommendations for ICG/CARIBE EWS % Acknowledges the completion of the report on Experts Meetings on  Sources of tsunamis for the Lesser Antilles . % Recognizing that a lack of specifically identified volcanic and landslide tsunami sources for the Caribbean region exists and/or is easily accessible, therefore, Acknowledges the need to progressively include volcanic and landslide sources and to build a dataset of scenarios for the Caribbean; % Recommends exploring ways to provide access to and/or compile non-seismic sources in CATSAM or another format; % Encourages a numerical modeling and probabilistic analysis of tsunamis related to volcanic activity and instability (i.e., large landslides, etc.) in the Caribbean. % Acknowledges the updates to CATSAM by WG2 members and invited experts, specifically the EDANYA Group (University of Mlaga), NOAA Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI/WDS), and WG4; % Encourages the ongoing maintenance and updates to CATSAM; % Requests Tsunami Ready TT to provide annual update of Tsunami Ready communities to WG2 for CATSAM; % Requests Caribe Wave TT to provide WG2 with the parameters, including associated files (e.g., shapefiles, geotiff, etc.) of the corresponding scenarios once they are available for future Caribe Wave exercises. % Acknowledges the ICG/CARIBE-EWS Chair s Letter of Support for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment in the Caribbean. % Recognizing the need for adequate bathymetric and topographic data to perform tsunami numerical modeling and obtain tsunami inundation and evacuation maps, and Considering the elevation data sharing challenges in the Caribbean region, % Recommends WG2 develop a  roadmap , or general guidance, on how to upload elevation data to the Caribbean Marine Atlas; % Encourages Member States to upload their elevation data, at a minimum to provide status of available data (e.g., extent, resolution, access, etc.), % Further Encourages the execution of a regional training on the development of digital elevation models (DEMs) for tsunami inundation modeling; Considering the recent development of a DEM Training Workshop Proposal. Working Group Internal Work Plan/Key Proposed Activities CATSAM updates and future work The incorporation of Caribe Wave scenarios into CATSAM continues to rely on numerical modelling work done by WG2 members, such as EDANYA Group (University of Mlaga). The preference would be to use the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) modelling results provided in official Caribe Wave handbooks. An arrangement has not yet been established due to personnel and/or other resource challenges. In the next intersessional period, WG2 expects to continue to work with TT on Caribe Wave exercises to ensure modelling results and other associated products are available to WG2 in formats compatible with CATSAM. The EDANYA Group, as invited experts to WG2, has once again volunteered to provide modelling results from the numerous scenarios documented in the Experts Meeting on Sources of Tsunamis in the Lesser Antilles report (Section 1). Additionally, WG2 will update the new Tsunami Ready layer (Section 2) to include coastal communities on the Pacific that are part of ICG/CARIBE-EWS Member States. This will ensure consistency as currently CATSAM displays sources and scenarios potentially impacting the Pacific side of ICG/CARIBE-EWS Member States. Another priority for CATSAM is to consider how to best incorporate non-seismic sources. Currently, only one (Kickem Jenny) non-seismic source is included in CATSAM. However, no parameters or modelled scenarios associated with this considered source are available. A priority will be to consider how to appropriately represent non-seismic sources, particularly volcanic sources. Non-seismic sources WG2 will actively discuss a steady and planned inclusion of volcanic and landslide tsunami sources. This process should eventually include the development of a dataset and/or compilation of scenarios for the Caribbean. This activity is a follow-up to the Scientific Experts Meetings held in Martinique in March 2019 and supports Goal 10.3, as well as the acknowledgement at the Fourteenth Session of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS to further collaborate with researchers involved with tsunamis from landslide sources. WG2 Website Next intersessional period, WG2 should work with relevant contacts at UNESCO/IOC to update WG2 website as recent documents (e.g., minimum bathymetric and topographic requirements for modeling), publications and other items are not currently accessible through the website. Elevation data sharing Next intersessional period, WG2 is to develop a roadmap, or general guidance, on how to upload bathymetric and topographic data and/or metadata to Caribbean Marine Atlas. Member States will then be encouraged to upload their data (e.g., extent, resolution, where to obtain, etc.) to Caribbean Marine Atlas. This effort will work towards the following Implementation Plan goal: Compile both seismic event catalogues and homogeneous and easily-accessible bathymetric data from coastal regions. Members Membership: Jeffrey Simmons, Meteorological Service, Bahamas Ricardo Arthur, CZMU, Barbados Ing. Ronald Snchez Escobar, DIMAR, Colombia CF Leonardo Marriaga, Director CIOH Pacifico DIMAR-CCCP, Colombia Claudia Urbano, Investigador DIMAR-CIOH, Colombia Yerinelis Santos, Investigador DIMAR-CIOH, Colombia Fernando Afanador, Investigador DIMAR-CIOH, Colombia SJ Fernando Oviedo, Investigador DIMAR-CCCP, Colombia Monica Arcila, Profesional Especializado SGC, Colombia Silvia Chacn, UNA, Costa Rica Marcelino Hernandez Gonzlez, Instituto de Oceanologa, Cuba Heriberto Antonio Fabian Espinal, ONAMET, Dominican Republic Narcisse Zahibo, Universit des Antilles et Guyane, France Valerie Clouard, Gosciences Environnement Toulouse, France 15. Dr. Jean Francois Dorville, TCGNRG (Guadeloupe), UWI Mona (Jamaica), Raphal Paris, CNRS, France Alberto Lpez, Universidad de Puerto Rico, Puerto Rico, USA Ms. Judith Ephraim, Sustainable Development Officer, Saint Lucia Frederic J.-Y. Dondin, SRC UWI-SRC, Trinidad & Tobago Nicolas Arcos, NOAA/NCEI, USA Diego Arcas, NOAA/PMEL, USA Dailing Wang, PTWC, USA Franck Audemard, FUNVISIS, Venezuela Sirel Coln, FUNVISIS/OVMP, Venezuela Carl B. Harbitz, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute ------ Invited Expert Hermann Fritz, Georgia Tech, USA ---- Invited Expert Jorge Macas, Universidad de Mlaga, Spain ---- Invited Expert Natalia Zamora, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain ---- Invited Expert Norwin Acosta, INETER, Nicaragua Martha Herrera, INETER, Nicaragua Albert Jones, CCCCC, Belize ---- Invited Expert Acronyms CATSAM - Caribbean and Adjacent Regions Tsunami Sources and Models webmap CCCCC - Caribbean Community Centre for Climate Change CCCP - Centro de Investigaciones Oceanogrficas e Hidrogrficas del Pacfico (Colombia) CIOH - Centro de Investigaciones Oceanogrficas e Hidrogrficas (Colombia) CNRS - Centre National De La Recherche Scientifique (France) CZMU- Coastal Zone Management Unit (Barbados) DEM Digital elevation model DIMAR 456DEFRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_ 7 8 H K L S c d e f m u v w x ûچyh5CJOJQJaJhD@XhUho15h| Fh| F5hOho15mH 4sH 4h| F5mH 4sH 4hOhO5mH 4sH 4hOhO5 h| F5jhHUmHnHuh"th| F ho1\ h\ hj\ h| F\ h?\ ho15ho1/6SUVWXYZ[\]^_}}} & `0p@ P` & `0p@ P V&+DV ,0Lp@ P]) /0p@ xPP]^P`gd? _7 L S d e f v w x $ & `0p@ Pa$gdj$ & `0p@ Pa$gd| F$ & `0p@ Pa$gdO$ & `0p@ Pa$ { | ¾uhhuhzNhzNCJOJQJh!JCJOJQJh!Jh!J>*ho1CJOJQJho15CJOJQJ\ ho15\jhH5UmHnHu ho1\ ho15ho1hjho15CJOJQJaJhjhj5CJOJQJaJhh5CJOJQJaJhfb5CJOJQJaJ$  7]7 & `0p@ P & `0p@ P | } 2 U>?^gdMgdM & FgdM^gdzNgdzNgd!Jgd!J $x&d P a$| } 2 J J JJ444TU=>?ALQRSTZb)*+lmVWX²²̢hy-hM6CJOJQJ]hOhM5CJOJQJ\hMCJOJQJhMhMCJOJQJhy-hM5CJOJQJ\hzNhzNCJOJQJhzNCJOJQJ@?*+mWX B(!)!S!% %% & FgdHh^hgdDv & FgdDvh^hgdd & Fgddgdd & Fgdd & FgdMh^hgdM & F^`gdy-< >AB???? 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