ࡱ> KMJ#` bjbj\.\. 46>D>D&VVVVVVVj8<*4j`%jj.s. $$$$$$$(hz*$Vss$VV$&VV$$!hVV"^ ԨTd?"k$|$%<`%O"f+f+ "f+V"|h)Js<$$LX`%jjdR djjR jjjVVVVVV INTERGOVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION (of UNESCO)WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATIONUNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMMEINTERNATIONAL COUNCIL FOR SCIENCEEleventh Session of the Global Ocean Observing System Scientific Steering Committee (GSSC-XI) 8-10 April 2008 Room XIV UNESCO BONVIN Paris, France GODAE Status: P.Y. Le Traon Over the past 10 years, GODAE through its International GODAE Steering Team (IGST) has coordinated and facilitated the development of global and regional ocean forecasting systems and has made excellent progress. GODAE main achievements will be briefly reviewed. An overview of GODAE activities carried out over the past two years will then be given. This includes the different working groups (Coastal, GODAE/IMBER, OSE/OSSEs, intercomparison) and pilot projects (Argo, GHRSST-PP). GODAE main achievements and results will be reviewed during the GODAE final symposium. Structure of the symposium will be presented. The symposium will be held from November 12 to November 15 in Nice just after the Ocean Surface Topography meeting. Program is now finalized with a series of invited multi-author papers. Call for abstracts for posters will be issued in April. Invited papers will be published in proceedings at the meeting after internal review by the Science Committee. A subset of papers will be reviewed/published in Oceanography Magazine (Spring/Summer 2009). The symposium will also include a discussion on the future of GODAE. A position paper will be prepared in the coming months and will be reviewed during the symposium. Main ideas will be presented here. International collaboration and coordination on both operational and research activities related to ocean forecasting should continue after the end of GODAE but in a different way. JCOMM provides an appropriate intergovernemtal mechanism for technical coordinating role on standardization and interoperability and has established an expert team on operational oceanographic systems. Continuous improvement of GODAE systems and the development of new capabilities are also needed and this demands state-of-the art research leadership. The most pressing societal issues to which ocean forecasting can make substantial contributions have also evolved over the last 10 years. They are not limited to open ocean forecasts. The most important are: The use of data assimilation to provide integrated descriptions of the global ocean state (reanalyses) and to characterize climate change in the ocean (detection) (links with CLIVAR); The application of ocean prediction techniques to the prediction of climate change (so-called decadal prediction); The assessment and characterization of specific sources of uncertainty in down-scaling of climate and climate-change scenario simulations and predictions in studies of the impact in coastal regions (e.g. extreme events, flooding, ecosystems, ); The development of improved atmospheric and climate forecasts (near coasts, hurricanes/tropical cyclones, monsoons, seasonal ); Real-time forecasting in near-shore / coastal waters (physics, biogeochemical and ecosystems) and coupling between open ocean and coastal areas; and Ecosystem modelling and the development of ecosystem based management of marine resources (links with IMBER). The research and development efforts needed to improve the GODAE systems of the future and extend their capabilities to the above societal needs will require international coordination and collaboration. These could be pursued under the oversight of an international oceanographic modelling working group. Such an approach will need to be integrated with existing and future research activities related to ocean modeling including those within the WCRP, in IGBP and in the WMO World Weather Research Program.     PAGE  GSC-III/1 prov. 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